FORGET A SOUND ECONOMY, IT SERVES NO PURPOSE IF YOU ARE NOT HEALTHY

BY WOLFGANG FENGLER , WORLD BANK LEAD ECONOMIST FOR KENYA,RWANDA, ERITREA

The data is un-ambiguous: Kenya’s economy is starting to catch up with the rest of the globe. But many of us probably wonder if that is really true, judging by what we observe in the streets of Nairobi or in rural areas.
In other words, is economic catch-up translating into social progress? Will today’s children have a better life than their parents? Will everyone enjoy decent social and infrastructure services in the new Kenya? Let’s zoom in on the case of health.
How healthy is Kenya today? Simply said, it could do better. This is important from an economic standpoint because a population’s health is key foundation for development. Healthy populations are more productive.
They also save and invest more. On average, and all other things equal, one extra year of life-expectancy raises a country’s GDP by four per cent. Today Kenya is not reaping these “health dividends”. Life expectancy is still below what it was in the 1970s, and well below those of Asians and Latin Americans.
Sadly, most of the diseases affecting ordinary Kenyans can be avoided. About a quarter of a million Kenyans die from preventable diseases every year. HIV and Aids, diarrhoea, and respiratory infections are the country’s greatest killers.
In addition, nearly 40 Kenyan women die due to pregnancy-related causes daily. As in most other sub-Saharan African countries, maternal and child deaths mostly revolve around childbirth. Newborn deaths contribute to two-thirds of infant mortality.
There have been some achievements in the last 10 years though. One often overlooked fact is the foundations of a healthy life are laid extremely early and parents have a particular responsibility.
People tend to become health conscious once their muscles and bones begin to ache on a regular basis, typically around the age of 40 or 50. This is too late, drivers of health are determined much earlier, in fact even before birth.
Recent studies have shown the first 1,000 days of one’s life are very vital for their future well-being in comparison to the subsequent 10,000 days. These first 1,000 days include pregnancy and the first two years of one’s life.
Mothers can help their infants by giving them good food, especially by breast-feeding. Improved care during pregnancy and childbirth will be critical for making further progress in maternal and child health. Malnutrition is a critical cause of child mortality.
Over a third of Kenyan children are affected. The levels have remained more or less the same since the early 1990s. Even among the richest households, 25 per cent of children are stunted, suggesting a serious issue with child-caring.
The annual loss to Kenya’s economy as a result of stunting is estimated at US$2.8 billion.
In addition to these, Kenya also faces new health challenges that are a product of economic transition, such as diabetes, heart diseases, high blood pressure and cancer.
Combination of new and old health challenges creates a “dual burden” for Kenya. In future, Kenya’s high population growth will be driven by those living longer, and who on average suffer from these new diseases.
The country’s health system will need to respond to the dual burden with a new focus on prevention, including lifestyle changes and effective primary level management of chronic diseases while cementing gains made in the control of communicable diseases.
This would also mean focusing less public money on tertiary care to manage the complications associated with non-communicable diseases, because such care is prohibitively expensive. In the end, the best strategy is always prevention.
The writer is World Bank Lead Economist for Kenya, Rwanda and Eritrea. This article has been co-authored with Dr. Ramana, Lead Health Specialist, World Bank. Follow Wolfgang on twitter @wolfgangfengler

The Fallacy Of Wasted Votes

I would like to go straight to the point.
In the build up to the Kenya's most competitive and most complicated elections in her 50yr history, there have been alliances and loyalties built over time.
What is shaping up is a conglomeration of tribal leaders desperate to be part of the next government.
A major confounding phenomenon unlike the past is opinion polling. These polls have deviated from the usual scientific techniques and seem heavily doctored with an intention to derail the undecided voters and mislead those already decided on  particular candidates.
It has been said that voting for Peter Kenneth, Ole Kiyiapi, Martha Karua and Mohamed Dida is wasting your votes. Allow me to radically disagree with this notion.

Why should you vote for Peter Kenneth and 'Others'
It is almost a forgone conclusion that there will be a run off since all indicators show not a single member will meet the threshold to win first round. for avoidance of any doubt, these are the requirments for one to be declared winner after round one:
(i) One must obtain a majority vote of 50% Plus 1
(ii) One must get at least 25% of the votes cast in more that 50% of the 47counties

With this tremendous threshhold, it is not possible to meet in the first round due to the following reasons:
- the tribal nature of Kenya votting patterns
- the multiplicity of presidential candidates whereby 8 persons have been cleared to vie either singularly or under different coalitions.

Implication is therefore that by going to the second round, the minor candidates christened by the Pollsters as other will play a critical role and will have a chance to still negotiate with leading candidates. Therefore opportunity will present once more for the two front runners to look for suppport from other candidates whose endosement they must secure in order to win.
If you have perused a particular manifesto and like it, then its imperative you go ahead and vote for the party that resonates well with your areas of interest may it be education policies, economy, agriculture, foreign policies, healthcare, governance and integrity.

Why should you vote for Peter Kenneth?
Since joining the parliament, Peter Kenneth popularly known as PK has redefined politics and politicking in Kenya. With the budgetary allocation to his constituency, he has turned around the lives of his constituents. Moreover, he has remained above board in his dealings always emphasizing integrity. It is on record of him having been one of the few (2 or 3) parliamentarians to pay taxes on their salaries.
In his manifesto, PK promises to focus more on social infrastructure of schools, security and health care.
By building a referral hospital in all the 47 counties of the country this will bring specialized care close to the population and in turn translate into reduced deaths of women and children, early disease diagnosis and timely treatment. It will also save on the scarce resources that will be channeled other areas of nation development.
Additionally, this candidate is hope personified. His brings new thinking and a deep sense of patriotism to the youths more so the first time voters and various disadvantaged sections of the populace. He will be the president for the old and young, rich and poor, large tribes and small tribes, learned and illiterates, able and those with disabilities.
Kenya needs to break from the sustained tradition of recycling leaders and repackaging that which cannot work and re-branding of usual faces. It must be clear break from bondage and tyranny of the few monied on the majority poor population.
It must be time to make that shocking decision. Vote PK.

Call to peaceful elections
Elections come and go but the nation and its citizens remain. It is therefore necessary not to spare any effort to safeguard the integrity of the Nation. Elections in democratic states are won through numbers. Therefore as you cast your ballots, remember that your candidate may win or lose and not win or win. We must prove the critics and skeptics wrong by upholding peace and brotherly love.
Lastly, to all people to believe in God, its high time we prayed earnestly for sanity to be upheld both during the electioneering period, at the time of voting and after voting.
God bless Kenya.

Understanding the Role of PSA in Cancer of Prostate Screening

SOURCE: WEBMD

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is a substance produced by the prostate gland. Elevated PSA levels may indicate prostate cancer, a noncancerous condition such as prostatitis, or an enlarged prostate.

Most men have PSA levels under four (ng/mL) and this has traditionally been used as the cutoff for concern about the risk of prostate cancer. Men with prostate cancer often have PSA levels higher than four, although cancer is a possibility at any PSA level. According to published reports, men who have a prostate gland that feels normal on examination and a PSA less than four have a 15% chance of having prostate cancer. Those with a PSA between four and 10 have a 25% chance of having prostate cancer and if the PSA is higher than 10, the risk increases to 67%.

In the past, most experts viewed PSA levels less than 4 ng/mL as normal. Due to the findings from more recent studies, some recommend lowering the cutoff levels that determine if a PSA value is normal or elevated. Some researchers encourage using less than 2.5 or 3 ng/mL as a cutoff for normal values, particularly in younger patients. Younger patients tend to have smaller prostates and lower PSA values, so any elevation of the PSA in younger men above 2.5 ng/mL is a cause for concern.
Just as important as the PSA number is the trend of that number (whether it is going up, how quickly, and over what period of time). It is important to understand that the PSA test is not perfect. Most men with elevated PSA levels have noncancerous prostate enlargement, which is a normal part of aging. Conversely, low levels of PSA in the bloodstream do not rule out the possibility of prostate cancer. However, most cases of early prostate cancer are found by a PSA blood test.